ROANOKE, Va. (WFXR) – A lot of gray area remains regarding what will happen next in the TikTok saga in the coming days and weeks.
One thing that is already clear is that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the ban on the app based on the nationality of its ownership is unprecedented for the social media sector in the United States.
“For this particular circumstance, it is a watershed moment because it is presumably going to be the end of a major platform in the United States,” said Dr. Cacey Myers, director of graduate studies for the Virginia Tech communications department.
TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, was given until January 19 to sell the app to a United States-based group.
While President Joe Biden and President-Elect Donald Trump have expressed a desire to extend the runway for a sale, ByteDance’s position seems firm on the matter.
“If they’re not selling it, what happens is the app supporters like Apple and these other platforms that support apps can’t support it because they’ll be fined,” said Myers. “So what happens is TikTok degrades in quality over time, if it remains.”
The key point is whether it remains because Myers feels like there is still a chance the app could be shut down completely.
Either way, the app’s roughly 170 million U.S. users are going to need somewhere to go.
“It’s going to displace users elsewhere, probably to one of the Meta platforms, if you’re looking at parity between what is TikTok and where are those people going to go,” said Myers. “They’re probably going to go to Instagram because those are the most similar.”
That migration could create trouble for creators, some of which have quit their jobs to make their livelihoods through TikTok.
“I feel for the folks who rely on this as their sole income,” said Lynchburg creator Chad Evans. “I feel for those folks and I’m sure they’ve been panicking.”
The 53-year-old creator has amassed over 1.4 million followers on the app over the course of nearly four years.
His top video has been viewed more than 27 million times and he routinely receives more than five million views on his short dance videos.
He said that he would be fine financially if the app goes away, but also said that despite his years of dedication to the app and content creation, he is unlikely to transition his following to another platform.
“Do I have other plans?” he reflected. “I’ll do some Instagram but if [TikTok] goes away permanently, I’ll be resorting my extra time to doing something else.”
Even for those who do migrate to other apps, there is a fear that it will be difficult to drive the same engagement that was possible on TikTok.
“Part of the engagement level of TikTok is their algorithm,” said Myers. “Their algorithm has been said to be very persuasive to people and engages with them.”
As a result, Myers said he would not be shocked if other apps, like Instagram or the emerging Red Note, try to replicate the algorithm to drive engagement on their own platforms.
Something else to consider is that non-creators who just watch videos on TikTok without monetizing through creation will also be looking for a new content marketplace.
As those users transition to alternative apps, it’s reasonable to assume higher engagement will follow.
With so much uncertainty about what is to come, most creators are trying to stay level-headed and positive to see what ultimately happens.
“We’ll reconvene in 90 days and let’s hope that by then there’s a steady path forward,” said Evans.