ROANOKE, Va. (WFXR) – A new Emerson College poll published Thursday morning is showed Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican and current lieutenant governor Winsome Earle-Sears by just one point in the 2025 Virginia Gubernatorial.
That projection comes fresh off the heels of a strong Republican showing in the state in the November 2024 election.
The race is still 10 months away, and the 2024 Presidential election showed just how much can change in a short amount of time.
“As far as what this tells us about who is going to vote for whom in November, we’re way too far away from that to draw inferences from what this data tells us right now,” said Radford University chair of political science Dr. Chapman Rackaway.
That being said, there are still some things to be gleaned from the early snapshot.
Perhaps the most significant is Virginians overwhelmingly tabbing the economy as the number one issue.
“Whatever happens in Virginia’s economy and whatever happens nationally, one of the two candidates is going to benefit from that in some way, shape, or form,” said Liberty University professor of government Aaron S. Van Allen.
While the overall margin between candidates is close, there is still large variance among many specific demographics.
For instance, Earle-Sears held a large lead among males and white voters while Spanberger captured the early advantage among females voters.
According to our analysts, the female demographic projects to be a massive swing in this race.
“I think that the women’s vote is going to be absolutely essential in 2025, all other things being equal,” said Rackaway.
“The fact that Spanberger has a very early lead in that regard is telling for me and I think the Lieutenant Governor will try to make up ground there over the next 10 months,” said Van Allen.
Also of note was the fact that independent voters accounted for nearly 30% of those polled.
Van Allen believes whichever candidate can win over the majority of that voter pool will have an advantage, pointing to recent state and national races where independent voters have provided a massive boost to one candidate over another.
“The independent vote in modern American politics is vitally important and it’s going to play that way now,” he said.
Rackaway disagreed and argued that independent voters still tend to gravitate to one party over the other.
“[The independent vote] will play a part but it won’t play nearly as big a part as it’s been advertised to be,” he said.
Rackaway did say that for him, the independent vote would rise in importance if another candidate, specifically a third-party candidate was to enter the race.